With the lithium supply-demand story heating up again, we highlighted an opportunity in Albemarle (ALB) in January.
At the time, it traded at around $162.
Today, it’s up to $192.30 and still exploding higher.
Lithium prices have rebounded sharply this year – rising from about $17,200 in January to roughly $25,301. The main catalyst is simple: demand is growing faster than supply, with the latter struggling to keep pace. Unfortunately, without significant investments in lithium mining, the world could quickly see supply deficits as early as 2028, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook for Lithium.
Major players like Albemarle expect strong growth ahead.
The company recently increased its 2030 global lithium demand forecast by 10%, and sees demand growing as much as 40% in 2026 alone. Meanwhile, firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS are already warning of supply deficits this year. In fact, Morgan Stanley forecasts a deficit of 80,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate for the year. UBS says we could see a deficit of 22,000 tons, compared with an expected surplus of 61,000 tons in 2025, as noted by Mining.com.
In addition, as noted by Mining Visuals, “Morgan Stanley’s aggressive 80,000-tonne deficit projection accounts for the reality that complex mine restarts often require two to five years to fully integrate back into the global supply chain.”
Sincerely,
Ian Cooper
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