Keep an eye on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) as it heads into its November 2 earnings.

At the moment, analysts do expect another quarter of higher revenue and earnings. But the bigger issue is what happens next. With the holiday shopping season approaching, investors want a clearer picture of demand, product availability, and whether rising costs are eating into profits. Apple has scheduled its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call for November 2 at 5 p.m. Eastern. The results will give investors a fresh look at the business and management’s expectations heading into its busiest selling season.

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What Wall Street expects

Analysts expect Apple to earn $1.99 per share on revenue of about $113.36 billion. That compares with earnings of $1.85 per share and revenue of $102.47 billion a year earlier. Those estimates imply earnings growth of about 7.6% and revenue growth of roughly 10.6%. 

Management said September-quarter revenue would increase between 9% and 11%, despite currency pressures and supply constraints affecting several product categories. In plain English, Wall Street expects solid growth. But investors will also want to know whether Apple can carry that momentum into the December quarter. A modest earnings beat could help. A stronger holiday outlook could matter even more.

The iPhone remains the biggest question

The iPhone will likely dominate the conversation, particularly as investors sort through conflicting signals about the latest models.

Apple entered the quarter with strong momentum. In its June quarter, iPhone revenue reached approximately $54.25 billion, compared with $44.58 billion a year earlier. That was growth of nearly 22%. The question now is how well that demand is holding up.

UBS analyst David Vogt has pointed to shorter delivery waits as a potential sign of softer demand. Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani has cautioned against treating supplier cutbacks as definitive evidence of weaker customer purchases. That makes management’s commentary especially valuable. Investors need to hear whether customers are buying, which models they prefer, and whether Apple can supply the products they want.

Sincerely,

Ian Cooper