Keep an eye on oversold shares of Carnival (NYSE: CCL).

The company is preparing to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings on Thursday, September 17 and expectations are running high.

After all, the third quarter includes the busy summer vacation season, making it one of Carnival’s most important reporting periods of the year. Investors will be looking for strong revenue, healthy onboard spending, and evidence that cruise demand remains resilient despite elevated fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

According to estimates, Wall Street expects Carnival to report third-quarter revenue of about $8.40 billion, up from $8.15 billion during the same quarter last year. Analysts also expect adjusted earnings of about $1.35 per share, compared with $1.43.

At first glance, those numbers send a mixed message. Revenue is expected to increase by roughly 3%, suggesting passengers are still booking cruises and spending money onboard. However, earnings are expected to decline modestly, largely because higher fuel costs and other expenses are pressuring Carnival’s margins. That means this earnings report will be about much more than whether Carnival beats the headline estimates.

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Cruise Demand Remains the Main Attraction

The most important part of Carnival’s report may be what management says about future demand. During the second quarter, Carnival reported record revenue of $6.7 billion and adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share. That was comfortably ahead of Wall Street’s earnings estimate of 35 cents.

The company also reported a record $9 billion in customer deposits. Its booked position for the second half of 2026 was ahead of the previous year and secured at historically high prices. Even better, Carnival said demand for cruises in 2027 and beyond was continuing to exceed year-ago levels. Those are encouraging signs.

Customer deposits give investors a valuable glimpse into future demand. When deposits are rising, it generally means passengers are booking more trips, or paying higher prices to secure them. Either way, it suggests consumers still view cruises as an attractive vacation option.

Wall Street will want to know whether that momentum continued throughout the summer.

Investors should pay especially close attention to Carnival’s comments about booking volumes, ticket prices, occupancy, and the amount passengers are spending on food, drinks, casinos, excursions, Internet packages, and other onboard services.

Sincerely,

Ian Cooper