One of the biggest catalysts supporting Buy Now, Pay Later, or BNPL is the financial pressure facing consumers. U.S. household debt stood at approximately $18.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2026. Credit-card balances climbed by $21 billion during the quarter to roughly $1.26 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 

Consumers are also saving less. The personal saving rate fell to approximately 3% in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That combination of high debt, expensive credit cards and limited savings can make smaller installment payments look especially attractive. 

One industry forecast estimated that the global BNPL market could grow from about $156.6 billion in 2023 to more than $1 trillion by 2028. For investors, there are two ways to approach this trend. They can buy a leading BNPL company such as Affirm Holdings, or they can spread their risk across several financial-technology businesses through an exchange-traded fund.

Affirm Holdings Remains the Top BNPL Trade

One of the top ways to trade the trend is with Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM), which remains one of the most direct ways to trade the BNPL expansion. 

Just look at earnings growth for the reason why. Affirm recently delivered an impressive fiscal fourth quarter. Revenue increased 33% year over year to approximately $1.17 billion. Gross merchandise volume – the total value of purchases made through Affirm – jumped 36% to $14.06 billion.

For the full fiscal year, GMV reached $50.17 billion, representing growth of 37%. Management now expects fiscal 2027 GMV to exceed $64 billion. 

Those numbers suggest that Affirm is doing more than simply riding a temporary consumer trend. The company is building a larger payment network involving shoppers, retailers and funding partners. As more merchants offer Affirm, the service becomes useful to more consumers. As more consumers use it, additional merchants have an incentive to join.

That network effect could become an important competitive advantage.

Affirm is also expanding internationally. Its partnership with Shopify is bringing Shop Pay Installments to Australia, giving the company another route into a potentially valuable market.

Sincerely,

Ian Cooper