Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, noting that XLF shares have been making a series of new 52-Week Highs.
For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) chart for Shopify, Inc. stock symbol: SHOP.
Before breaking down SHOP’s MACD chart let’s first review what products and services the company offers.
Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company’s platform enables merchants to displays, manages, markets, and sells its products through various sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, pop-up shops, social media storefronts, native mobile apps, buy buttons, and marketplaces.
MACD Indicator confirms Price Momentum
The SHOP daily price chart below shows that SHOP is in a price uptrend as the 24/52 day MACD line (black line) is above the 18-Day EMA (purple line). The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence chart is shown below the daily price chart.
MACD uses moving averages to create a momentum indicator by subtracting the longer-term moving average from the shorter-term moving average. The MACD is calculated by subtracting a stock’s longer term 52-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from its shorter term 24-Day EMA. This creates the MACD line.
MACD ‘Buy’ Signal
The 18-Day EMA line functions as a buy/sell ‘trigger’. When the 24/52 Day MACD line crosses above the 18-Day EMA line it indicates positive momentum and higher prices for the stock. When the 24/52 Day MACD lines crosses below the 18-Day EMA it indicates negative momentum and lower prices for the stock. MACD is more of a leading indicator than a moving average crossover which tends to lag price movement.
MACD Histogram shows Acceleration of Momentum
Also included in a MACD chart is the histogram bar graph. This portion of the chart helps to illustrate the distance between the 24/52 Day MACD and the 18-Day EMA.
When a crossover initially occurs, the histogram’s bar will be near flat as the two indicator lines have converged. As the lines begin to separate, the bars grow in height, indicating a widening gap and acceleration for the stock’s momentum. When the histogram’s bars begin to shrink this indicates a narrowing of the gap between the 24/52 Day MACD and the 18-Day EMA and a slowing of the stock’s momentum. When the gap between the two indicators begins to narrow, this typically indicates a crossover of the indicator lines could happen soon.
Buy SHOP Stock
As long as the 24/52 Day MACD line remains above the 18-Day EMA, the stock is more likely to keep trading at new highs in the coming days and weeks.
Since SHOP’s bullish run is likely to continue, the stock should be purchased.
Our initial price target for SHOP stock is 80.00 per share.
Profit if SHOP is Up, Down or Flat
Now, since SHOP’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA and will likely rally from here, let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a SHOP call option spread.
The Call Option Spread Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option spread based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a 7.5% increase to a 7.5% decrease in SHOP stock at option expiration.
The goal of this example is to demonstrate the ‘built in’ profit potential for option spreads and the ability of spreads to profit if the underlying stock is up, down or flat at option expiration. Out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the option strike prices used in the profit/loss calculation.
The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for SHOP on 12/20/2023 before commissions.
Built in Profit Potential
For this option spread, the calculator analysis below reveals the cost of the spread is $287 (circled). The maximum risk for an option spread is the cost of the spread.
The analysis reveals that if SHOP stock is flat or up at all at expiration the spread will realize a 74.2% return (circled).
And if SHOP stock decreases 7.5% at option expiration, the option spread would make a 66.0% return (circled).
Due to option pricing characteristics, this option spread has a ‘built in’ 74.2% profit potential when the trade was identified*.
Option spread trades can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to a directional option trade if you can profit when the underlying stock/ETF is up, down or flat.
A higher percentage of winning trades can give you the discipline needed to become a successful trader.
The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.
Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.
Trade High Priced Stocks for $350 With Less Risk
One of the big advantages to trading option spreads is that spreads allow you to trade high price stocks like Amazon, Google, or Netflix for as little as $350. With an option spread you can control 100 shares of Netflix for $350. If you were to purchase 100 shares of Netflix at current prices it would cost about $49,000. With the stock purchase you are risking $49,000 but with a Netflix option spread that costs $350 your maximum risk is $350 so your dollar risk is lower with option spreads compared to stock purchases.
Short-Term Program from Chuck!
Chuck Hughes has just launched his exciting new trading service program, Lightning Trade Alerts. This new service focuses on low-cost & short-term options trade.
Members will receive hand-picked options trades from the 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes.
Call our team at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join or CLICK HERE to schedule a call!
Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,
Editor, Trade of the Day
Have any questions? Email us at email@example.com
*Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading.