Election VS Fed? Who Moves The Market?

Posted by Joe Duffy | Nov 4, 2024 | Joe Duffy's Trading Advantage | 0 |

I think it will be lower this week in the general stock market. It is also FOMC week with an implied volatility range of 15 points in the SPY. In my view, the FOMC will produce more reaction than the election, unless the election is so close as to cause a delay in the final result.

Current positions: short IWM at 220 from Friday looking for 214 next week (chart). Long CVX at 150.00, currently 153, coming off a favorable earnings report Also short XHB homebuilders ETF at 114.50, looking for bigger picture lower prices. Long and offside on TLT from 95.00 but with options 9 months or more out. Also a bigger picture trade.

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This week two stocks I believe will take out last week’s low for short term but tradable declines include ROKU and DKNG. If the Fed and the Bank of Canada are at all co-ordinated (and they may not be, but to some extent they likely are), then the FOMC will be dovish.

Thanks,

Joe

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Joe Duffy

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