Increased Buying Pressure for PHM

Dear Reader,

Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd., noting the stock’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA signaling a ‘Buy’.

For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at an On Balance Volume chart for PulteGroup, Inc. stock symbol: PHM.

Before breaking down PHM’s OBV chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It acquires and develops land primarily for residential purposes; and constructs housing on such land. The company also offers various home designs, including single-family detached, townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, American West, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brand names.

Confirming a Price Uptrend with OBV

The PHM daily price chart below shows that PHM is in a price uptrend as the current price is above the price PHM traded at six months ago (circled). The On Balance Volume chart is below the daily chart.

On Balance Volume measures volume flow with a single Easy-to-Read Line. Volume flow precedes price movement and helps sustain the price downtrend. When a stock closes up, volume is added to the line. When a stock closes down, volume is subtracted from the line. A cumulative total of these additions and subtractions form the OBV line.

On Balance Volume Indicator

● When Close is Up, Volume is Added

● When Close is Down, Volume is Subtracted

● A Cumulative Total of Additions and Subtractions form the OBV Line

Volume flow precedes price and is the key to measuring the validity and sustainability of a price trend.

We can see from the OBV chart below that the On Balance Volume line for PHM is sloping up. An up-sloping line indicates that the volume is heavier on up days and buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure. Buying pressure must continue to exceed selling pressure in order to sustain a price uptrend. So, On Balance Volume is a simple indicator to use that confirms the price uptrend and its sustainability.

The numerical value of the On Balance Volume line is not important. We simply want to see an up-sloping line to confirm a price uptrend.

Confirmed ‘Buy’ Signal for PHM

Since PHM’s OBV line is sloping up, the most likely future price movement for PHM is up, making PHM a good candidate for a stock purchase or a call option spread.

Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a PHM debit spread.

The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat PHM price to a 12.5% increase.

The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following PHM option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the PHM option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

Trade with Higher Accuracy

When you use the 1% Rule to select a PHM in-the-money option strike price, PHM stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if PHM stock is flat at 62.35 at option expiration, it will only result in a 1.3% loss for the PHM option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.

Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for PHM on 4/19/2023 before commissions.

When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.

For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if PHM stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 65.47 (circled), the call option would make 40.5% before commission.

If PHM stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 68.59 (circled), the call option would make 82.3% before commission and outperform the stock return more than 8 to 1*.

The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

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Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,