Insurance Stock Poised for New Highs

Dear Reader,

Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart for Lennar Corp., noting that LEN’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA signaling a ‘Buy’.

For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a daily price chart for Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., stock symbol: HIG.

Before breaking down HIG’s daily chart let’s first review what products and services the company offers.

The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. is one of the major multi-line insurance and investment companies in the country, providing investment products, group life and group disability insurance, property and casualty (P&C) insurance and mutual funds in the U.S.

Now, let’s begin to break down the Daily Price chart for HIG stock.

Below is a Daily Price chart with the 50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA for HIG.

50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA ‘Buy’ Signal

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 100-Day EMA are moving average indicator lines that can provide buy and sell signals when used together. When the shorter-term 50-Day EMA crosses above or below the longer-term 100-Day EMA, this provides either a buy or sell signal depending on which direction the stock price is moving.

50-Day EMA line Above 100-Day EMA = Price Uptrend = Buy signal
50 Day EMA line Below 100-Day EMA = Price Downtrend = Sell signal

When the 50-Day EMA (blue line) crosses above the 100-Day EMA (red line) this indicates that the stock’s buying pressure has begun to outweigh the selling pressure signaling a ‘buy’ signal. When the 50-Day EMA crosses below the 100-Day EMA this indicates that the selling pressure has begun to outweigh the buying pressure signaling a ‘sell’ signal.

Buy HIG Stock

As the chart shows, on July 10^th, 2023, the HIG 50-Day EMA, crossed above the 100-Day EMA.

This crossover indicated the buying pressure for HIG stock exceeded the selling pressure. For this kind of crossover to occur, a stock has to be in a strong bullish trend.

Now, as you can see, the 50-Day EMA is still above the 100-Day EMA meaning the ‘buy’ signal is still in play.

As long as the 50-Day EMA remains above the 100-Day EMA, the stock is more likely to keep trading at new highs and should be purchased.

Our initial price target for HIG stock is 114.25 per share.

153.5% Profit Potential for HIG Option

Now, since HIG’s 50-Day EMA is trading above the 100-Day EMA this means the stock’s bullish rally will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for an HIG call option purchase.

The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat HIG price to a 12.5% increase.

The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following HIG option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the HIG option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

Trade with Higher Accuracy

When you use the 1% Rule to select an HIG in-the-money option strike price, HIG stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if HIG stock is flat at 111.70 at option expiration, it will only result in a 5.0% loss for the HIG option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.

Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for HIG on 8/22/2024 before commissions.

When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.

For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if HIG stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 117.29 (circled), the call option would make 74.3% before commission.

If HIG stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 122.87 (circled), the call option would make 153.5% before commission and outperform the stock return more than 15 to 1*.

The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.

Chuck’s Copilot: Did you Miss This?

Today I hosted a live session to showcase my state-of-the-art automated trade-finder, Copilot. It was a great session and if you were able to attend, we were glad to have you join us.

Great news for anyone who wasn’t able to join, we recorded today’s session to allow you to watch now that you have time to.