Dear Reader,
Yesterday, we looked at a Monthly Price Chart of Automatic Data Processing, Inc., noting that ADP’s 1-Month Price is trading above the 10-Month SMA signaling a ‘Buy’.
For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at an On Balance Volume chart for Consolidated Edison, Inc. stock symbol: ED.
Before breaking down ED’s OBV chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.
Consolidated Edison, Inc. is a diversified utility holding company, with subsidiaries engaged in both regulated and unregulated businesses.
Confirming a Price Uptrend with OBV
The ED daily price chart below shows that ED is in a price uptrend as the current price is above the price ED traded at six months ago (circled). The On Balance Volume chart is below the daily chart.
On Balance Volume measures volume flow with a single Easy-to-Read Line. Volume flow precedes price movement and helps sustain the price uptrend. When a stock closes up, volume is added to the line. When a stock closes down, volume is subtracted from the line. A cumulative total of these additions and subtractions form the OBV line.
On Balance Volume Indicator
● When Close is Up, Volume is Added
● When Close is Down, Volume is Subtracted
● A Cumulative Total of Additions and Subtractions form the OBV Line
Volume flow precedes price and is the key to measuring the validity and sustainability of a price trend.
We can see from the OBV chart below that the On Balance Volume line for ED is sloping up. An up-sloping line indicates that the volume is heavier on up days and buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure. Buying pressure must continue to exceed selling pressure in order to sustain a price uptrend. So, On Balance Volume is a simple indicator to use that confirms the price uptrend and its sustainability.
The numerical value of the On Balance Volume line is not important. We simply want to see an up-sloping line to confirm a price uptrend.
Confirmed ‘Buy’ Signal for ED
Since ED’s OBV line is sloping up, the most likely future price movement for ED is up, making ED a good candidate for a stock purchase or a call option purchase.
Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for an ED call option purchase.
The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat ED price to a 12.5% increase.
The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following ED option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the ED option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.
Trade with Higher Accuracy
When you use the 1% Rule to select an ED in-the-money option strike price, ED stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if ED stock is flat at 103.28 at option expiration, it will only result in a 7.5% loss for the ED option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.
Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.
The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.
The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for ED on 9/13/2024 before commissions.
When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.
For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if ED stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 108.44 (circled), the call option would make 36.9% before commission.
If ED stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 113.61 (circled), the call option would make 81.2% before commission and outperform the stock return more than 8 to 1*.
The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.
The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.
Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.
Check out Chuck’s PRO Trading Service!
I don’t want you to miss a single opportunity to potentially reach your goals. That’s why I want to share this video I made about my PRO Trading Service.
I want you to follow in my footsteps for the opportunity to succeed beyond your wildest dreams, so please call my office at (737) 292-4425 and get started today!
Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,
Chuck Hughes
Editor, Trade of the Day
Have any questions? Email us at dailytrade@chuckstod.com
*Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading.
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