Intuit, Inc. (INTU) announced earnings yesterday. The company beat estimates and raised its guidance
for the year. However, the stock is falling in pre-open trading because the company reported a
substantial decline in their free users during this recent tax season. The fear is that INTU is struggling
to convert low-end users into high-end users due to increased competition.
In pre-open trading, the stock is down 5.63%. For the worst-case scenario, we have to go all the way
back to August of 2015 where the stock dropped 13.31% in one day after an earnings report. This was
also when China devalued its currency, if that date stands out to you like it does to us.
INTU is certainly trending in the news after their earnings report. Volatility expectations are high and
we expect that as the market digests the earnings report today, volatility expectations will calm down.
In the meantime, we may take advantage of the high volatility with a zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE)
trade on INTU.


This graph shows us how the stock behaved on the day after previous earnings announcements. We
created this custom graph to show how unlikely it is that the stock will fall enough to fall below the
breakeven point of our trade idea today.

This MDM graph compares the modeled expectations of current options prices (the orange line) to the
actual stock movement over the past year. You can see that the modeled expectations don’t look
anything like the actual stock behavior over the last year. This graph tells us that the options prices are
extremely high. This is an option selling situation.

The Volatility Term Structure shows that INTU options expiring today have extremely high volatility
expectations. To learn more about Volatility Term Structure, click here. After analyzing the data, we found that current expectations are too extreme. We can
exploit this using a limited-risk, high-probability strategy that expires today.

INTU’s stock price is falling in pre-open trading despite beating earnings estimates and raising future
guidance. The decline is being driven by worries that the drop in free users could have a lasting
adverse impact on the company’s prospects.
Volatility expectations are extreme and we can exploit the situation with a limited-risk, high probability
option selling strategy.
Be sure to read the ODDS Online Daily Trade Idea report to get the details of our trade idea for INTU.

To access Odds Online Daily and be able to see any stock you are tracking in this software, click here.
Thank you,
Don Fishback
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