Logitech International S.A. (LOGI), Trending Stock Rport

Logitech International S.A. (LOGI) appeared on our list of compressed stocks this morning. The stock has a history of making big moves shortly after a compression signal, and the volatility expectations for the October 18^th options expiration are relatively low.

In the charts below, you can see that the moves after compression signals in 2011 & 2016 did not just make 1-standard-deviation moves that were profitable, or 2-standard-deviation moves that were wildly profitable. LOGI shares made moves that exceeded 3-standard-deviations. Moves that large are insanely profitable.

One of those insanely profitable trades was to the downside and the other to the upside. This is an example of why our preference is to use the neutral strategies when we buy options.

This Volatility Term Structure chart for LOGI shows us the implied volatility for the at-the-money options for each expiration. The volatility expectations for the October 18^th expiration are the lowest with enough time for the stock to make a profitable move after the compression signal.

This MDM graph compares the modeled expected distribution for future stock prices (the orange line) with the actual distribution of the stock’s prices over the past two years (the blue histogram). You can see that the actual stock movement does not match the expected. This graph tells us that the stock makes large moves more frequently than modeled prices expect. That is good for option buyers.

This Volatility Cone chart shows the implied volatility of the at-the-money options at each term (the yellow dots) along with the two-year historical average. It also shows the historical high and low over the same time period (the purple lines). This chart confirms that options at every term are below average. That is a good sign for option buyers.

LOGI’s stock prices are compressed. The stock has a history of making big moves shortly after a compression signal. Options prices for the October 18^th expiration are relatively inexpensive. This is an option buying opportunity.

To get the specific details and prices on today’s trade ideas, be sure to read today’s ODDS Online Daily Option Trade Idea.