Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is trending in the news. Social media mentions are up 183% in the last 24 hours and volatility expectations are low relative to the stock’s history.

PLTR is a popular AI stock that has government defense and intelligence contracts. Recently the company announced an expanded partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) in an effort to increase its offerings and grow its income from new defense and intelligence contracts.

From an options trader’s perspective PLTR volatility expectations are low, and the stock has a history of making moves that are much larger than modeled options prices expect. This tells us that investors may be underestimating the stock’s potential for a big move in the near future.

This Volatility Term Structure for PLTR shows us the implied volatility for the at-the-money options for each expiration. To learn more about Volatility Term Structure, click here.This graph tells us that options expiring September 27th are less expensive than other expirations with enough time to allow the stock to make a bigger-than-expected move. This is the expiration we will target for an option buying strategy.

This MDM graph compares the modeled expectations of current options prices (the orange line) to the actual movement of PLTR’s stock price over the past year. You can see that the actual behavior of the stock (the blue histogram) does not match the modeled expectations. This graph tells us that PLTR makes large moves more frequently than modeled options prices expect. That is good news for option buyers.

This Volatility Cone shows us the implied volatility of options for each term compared to the average historical volatility (the blue line) of PLTR options at each term. To learn more about the Volatility Cone, click here. It also shows the high and the low historical volatility for each term. This graph confirms volatility expectations for every term are below the 1-year historical average. 

PLTR is a popular AI stock that is trending in the news and social media. Based on the stock’s history, it looks like investors are underestimating PLTR’s potential for a big move in the next few weeks. This is an option buying situation.

To get the specific details and prices on today’s trade ideas, be sure to read today’s ODDS Online Daily Option Trade Idea.

To access Odds Online Daily and be able to see any stock you are tracking in this software, click here.

Thank you,

Don Fishback