The charts attached are the SP 500 ETF on the left and the Nasdaq ETF on the right. Each bar is 100 minutes or 1/4 of the trading day, thus 4 bars per day. As discussed the first move out of the box is often false and completely reversed plus some in the other direction. We see in both charts price is trading outside the lower boundary of the box as of Thursday close. The midpoint of the box is a good place to find support or resistance. Note today in the SP chart on the left how well the midpoint of the box turned back price. Right now the charts are empirically bearish, as long as price trades below the lower boundaries. What we MUST be aware of here is a reversal of the reversal. That is to say if price does gather itself and rally through the top of the box again, then expect an epic rally with substantial new highs.
My current positions are double size long TLT bond ETF at $92.80. Short PayPal (PYPL) at $60.00. Long Cisco (CSCO) at $47.80. Long Carvana (CVNA) at $127.00. Except for PYPL these are all a little bit underwater, But I still like them all, with substantial time to go on the options.
Thanks,
Joe
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