The chart from Thursday updated attached. As you can see we barely managed to hang on to support in the Nasdaq. Still I think it should bounce from here. I make the odds we get an earning explosion to the upside that takes us to new all time highs as about 1 in 3. So that means 2 in 3 that after any bounce here, we make further new lows as July unfolds. The best news is the market is finally getting some mean revision. This means if it starts behaving as it has most of the time over decades, it’s a whole lot easier to trade. Right now looking for a bounce before another leg lower.

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If short trades set up, I will take them. But I won’t be top picking the rally leaders. Look at under performers. BA is one. ARKK is another that looks like the rally has run its course. The latter is a great stock to be short if the market starts to go down.  I have been watching ARKK closely for a couple weeks and it has performed better than I anticipated, but that run is about over and it’s time to hone in on a short set up.   

Thanks,

Joe