After being bearish a couple weeks ago with my most open shorts in two years my view was to cover on weakness into the end of last week. On the weekend update I expected a rotational rally and Monday provided a large one. This is now a critical juncture. The Tuesday decline needs to be reversed to the upside to at least some extent on Wednesday or the market is in short term trouble. Further weakness from here on Wednesday, begets further weakness into next week I believe. Volatility is increasing, liquidity is being drained, so big moves can happen. The semi stocks are key.
The symbol for the semiconductor stocks ETF is SMH. This ETF made a very marginal multi-week high, Tuesday morning before selling off all day to close at the low. If semis are weak, the market will be weak, so watch those.
Thanks,
Joe
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