You know my best current trade idea and will revisit on the weekend if you somehow do not. For today just going to illustrate a simple filter to keep your potential wins larger and potential losses smaller. Simply, I do not go long when price is near the top of the Bollinger channel and RSI is above 70. That does NOT mean I sell short. It just means I wait to go long until price in the bottom half of the trading bands and RSI is nearer oversold. If you elect this strategy you are buying a market that is already nearing oversold… such that even if it continues to fall further it is closer to a bounce back.
Conversely buying at the top of the band with high RSI and the market declines, it is a long way from being oversold and getting a bounce. This is not at all to say markets can’t continue to rise along or outside the band, nor that RSI can’t remain overbought for considerable time. It’s not a filter of timing, as much as it is a filter of probabilities and risk control. Certainly it will cause me to sit out some good market moves. But I trade that off for the smaller risk and higher probability of success when I do trade. The attached chart features a 20 period 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band and a 5 period RSI.
Thanks,
Joe
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