After being stridently bullish since the day of the October 23 lows I flipped my view to “correction” 6 trading days ago. Thus far that view has neither been rewarded nor punished. The market has gyrated sharply in both directions, burning option premiums for both call and put holders. The latter is why I always take a far dated contract unless my conviction is very high.

I was looking for the market to put in a low this week. I still think that low is likely, but also likely I am not going to see the size correction I initially anticipated. We have a big news week with CPI AND PPI. Gold though is finding a footing, indicating that the gold market doesn’t see higher rates. Bottom line, any sharp decline this week, I will use to exit my shorts. Expect to see a trip to the bottom half of the channel on the attached chart, a move that is overdue.