If you are a regular reader you might recall I identified the low in TLT the long term bond ETF within a day on October 6. It has since had a decent rally. It fell Tuesday on a hot CPI number. I believe this marks a top in TLT (chart). I will try to get positioned on the short side this week. Higher rates and weaker TLT, also will likely prove a strong headwind for gold. 

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As far as the stock market I expect a jagged recovery to continue this week. Theoretically lower TLT should also be a problem for stocks but I do not think it’s a large factor right now. The market is forming a bottom (though a lower low is totally on the table) and one thing I do believe is do NOT look at the leaders of the last year to be the leaders into 2027 and beyond. It will be a whole different crew of names. 

Thanks,

Joe