Yesterday, we looked at a Monthly Price Chart for Heico Corp. noting that the stock’s 1-Month Price is trading above the 10-Month SMA signaling a ‘Buy’.
For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a daily price chart for Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock symbol: ACGL.
Before breaking down ACGL’s daily chart let’s first review what products and services the company offers.
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. The company’s Insurance segment offers primary and excess casualty coverages; loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs; collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products; directors’ and officers’ liability, errors and omissions liability, employment practices and fiduciary liability, crime, professional indemnity, and other financial related coverages.
Now, let’s begin to break down the Daily Price chart for ACGL stock.
Below is a Daily Price chart with the 50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA for ACGL.
50-Day EMA and 100-Day EMA ‘Buy’ Signal
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 100-Day EMA are moving average indicator lines that can provide buy and sell signals when used together. When the shorter-term 50-Day EMA crosses above or below the longer-term 100-Day EMA, this provides either a buy or sell signal depending on which direction the stock price is moving.
- 50-Day EMA line Above 100-Day EMA = Price Uptrend = Buy signal
- 50 Day EMA line Below 100-Day EMA = Price Downtrend = Sell signal
When the 50-Day EMA (blue line) crosses above the 100-Day EMA (red line) this indicates that the stock’s buying pressure has begun to outweigh the selling pressure signaling a ‘buy’ signal. When the 50-Day EMA crosses below the 100-Day EMA this indicates that the selling pressure has begun to outweigh the buying pressure signaling a ‘sell’ signal.
Buy ACGL Stock
As the chart shows, on October 3rd, 2022, the ACGL 50-Day EMA, crossed above the 100-Day EMA.
This crossover indicated the buying pressure for ACGL stock exceeded the selling pressure. For this kind of crossover to occur, a stock has to be in a strong bullish trend.
Now, as you can see, the 50-Day EMA is still above the 100-Day EMA meaning the ‘buy’ signal is still in play.
As long as the 50-Day EMA remains above the 100-Day EMA, the stock is more likely to keep trading at new highs and should be purchased.
Our initial price target for ACGL stock is 295.00 per share.
95.6% Profit Potential for ACGL Option
Now, since ACGL’s 50-Day EMA is trading above the 100-Day EMA this means the stock’s bullish rally will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for an ACGL call option purchase.
The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat ACGL price to a 12.5% increase.
The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following ACGL option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the ACGL option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.
Trade with Higher Accuracy
When you use the 1% Rule to select an ACGL in-the-money option strike price, ACGL stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if ACGL stock is flat at 66.28 at option expiration, it will only result in a 4.8% loss for the ACGL option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.
Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.
The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.
The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for ACGL on 2/14/2023 before commissions.
When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.
For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if ACGL stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 69.59 (circled), the call option would make 45.4% before commission.
If ACGL stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 72.91 (circled), the call option would make 95.6% before commission and outperform the stock return more than 9 to 1*.
The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.
The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.
Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.
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Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,
Editor, Trade of the Day
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*Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading.
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