In the weekend update I outlined why I thought the market was at risk for a sharp and rapid decline. So far that is exactly what we are getting. Even so, I am inclined to NOT believe this is going to snowball into a complete debacle. The only way I see that is if the Middle East unravels completely and crude oil sustains over $100 barrel. 

Still I am most certainly not wading in to catch the falling knife. The attached chart I featured on the weekend. It’s simple.

As long as the SPY is below the blue line on the chart it’s in a bear trend. Not going to try to wade into that, unless it gets to very oversold levels where the odds start to shift in favor of a rebound. We are a ways from there yet. Perhaps around SPY 740.  

Thanks,

Joe