For the last 3 weeks I have been saying it is too late/ low probability trade to push the long side in the general stock market. Let me give you a concrete example of why I have been saying that. In the last 25 years we have only had two other occasions when the stock market went this long or longer, in terms of trading days, without at least a 2 percent correction. As I see the number of occurrences get smaller and smaller the last three weeks, the probability of continued strength gets smaller and smaller.

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So as I said there have only been 2 other occasions when the number of trading days exceeded where we are at today. And how did that turn out? On the first occasion the party ended with a almost 5% correction in 5 trading days. The second occasion ended with a 10% correction in 10 trading days. Hopefully you see why trying to be long now is like the proverbial picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. These things often end with an “event”. Keep a close eye on geo politics. I am putting out the big red flag.