One of the toughest, but arguably the single most important thing you can learn about trading, is that “trading” is not really about trading! What I mean by that is your ultimate success is most likely to be determined not by the trades you do, but by the trades you don’t do. The job is actually more appropriately titled “waiter” rather than trader. When I get in a trade I like, I know the probabilities based on a clear and established set up.
For myself I always like to buy the dip, so most often some sort of short term reversal pattern has established a low to trade against. If the market subsequently closes back below that low then it is time to exit. My strategies mostly use that simple basic principle — (i) empirically define a trend (ii) wait for the pullback (iii) wait for the entry trigger. After that I know my risk is at the recent low and my initial target is 1 to 1.5 times my risk. My second target is 2 to 3 times my risk. These are the principles that the X RAY strategy is built on. Hopefully the attached chart illustrates this concept! Right now we are waiters!
Thanks,
Joe
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