Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of McKesson Corp., noting the stock’s 50-Day EMA is trading above the 100-Day EMA signaling a ‘Buy’.
For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at a Keltner Channel chart for Molina Healthcare, Inc. stock symbol: MOH.
Before breaking down MOH’s daily Keltner Channel chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces. It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. The company served in across 19 states.
Now, let’s begin to break down the Keltner Channel chart for MOH. Below is a Daily Price Chart and the three Keltner Channels for MOH stock.
Buy MOH Stock
The Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels as an indicator to determine whether a stock is overbought or oversold. If a stock’s daily stock price is trading above the upper Keltner Channel, this signals that the stock is temporarily overbought and subject to a retracement.
Even stocks that are in the strongest bull trends do not advance in a straight line. There are always price retracements along the way. When a stock becomes overbought, it’s price will typically decline soon after as the inevitable profit taking occurs.
The MOH daily price chart shows that the stock is in a strong price uptrend and has become overbought several times. You can see this as MOH has traded above the Upper Keltner Channel on multiple occasions recently.
But, in every scenario when MOH became overbought, the stock soon experienced a pullback.
Finding opportunities when a stock experiences a pullback is why the Hughes Optioneering Team uses the Keltner Channels. They help us find a lower-risk entry point.
The Keltner Channel “Buy Zone” occurs when a stock is trading below the upper Keltner Channel. Once the daily price is trading below the upper channel, it provides a lower-risk buying opportunity as the stock is likely to rally.
Our initial price target for MOH stock is 342.00 per share.
Profit if MOH is Up, Down or Flat
Now, since MOH stock is trading in the Keltner Channel ‘Buy Zone’, this presents us with a prime trade entry opportunity. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a MOH call option spread.
The Call Option Spread Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option spread based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a 7.5% increase to a 7.5% decrease in MOH stock at option expiration.
The goal of this example is to demonstrate the ‘built in’ profit potential for option spreads and the ability of spreads to profit if the underlying stock is up, down or flat at option expiration. Out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the option strike prices used in the profit/loss calculation.
The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for MOH on 10/5/2023 before commissions.
Built in Profit Potential
For this option spread, the calculator analysis below reveals the cost of the spread is $1330 (circled). The maximum risk for an option spread is the cost of the spread.
The analysis reveals that if MOH stock is flat or up at all at expiration the spread will realize a 50.4% return (circled).
And if MOH stock decreases 7.5% at option expiration, the option spread would make an 8.3% return (circled).
Due to option pricing characteristics, this option spread has a ‘built in’ 50.4% profit potential when the trade was identified*.
Option spread trades can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to a directional option trade if you can profit when the underlying stock/ETF is up, down or flat.
A higher percentage of winning trades can give you the discipline needed to become a successful trader.
The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.
Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.
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One of the big advantages to trading option spreads is that spreads allow you to trade high price stocks like Amazon, Google, or Netflix for as little as $350. With an option spread you can control 100 shares of Netflix for $350. If you were to purchase 100 shares of Netflix at current prices it would cost about $37,000. With the stock purchase you are risking $37,000 but with a Netflix option spread that costs $350 your maximum risk is $350 so your dollar risk is lower with option spreads compared to stock purchases.
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Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,
Editor, Trade of the Day
Have any questions? Email us at email@example.com
*Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading.