Momentum Pushes Pharma Stock Upward

Dear Reader,

Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of Charles Schwab Corp., noting the stock’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA signaling a ‘Buy’.

For today’s Trade of the Day we will be looking at an On Balance Volume chart for GlaxoSmithKline plc. stock symbol: GSK.

Before breaking down GSK’s OBV chart let’s first review which products and services are offered by the company.

GlaxoSmithKline plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the creation, discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products, vaccines, over-the-counter medicines, and health-related consumer products in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Pharmaceuticals, Pharmaceuticals R&D, Vaccines, and Consumer Healthcare.

Confirming a Price Uptrend with OBV

The GSK daily price chart below shows that GSK is in a price uptrend as the current price is above the price GSK traded at six months ago (circled). The On Balance Volume chart is below the daily chart.

On Balance Volume measures volume flow with a single Easy-to-Read Line. Volume flow precedes price movement and helps sustain the price uptrend. When a stock closes up, volume is added to the line. When a stock closes down, volume is subtracted from the line. A cumulative total of these additions and subtractions form the OBV line.

On Balance Volume Indicator

● When Close is Up, Volume is Added

● When Close is Down, Volume is Subtracted

● A Cumulative Total of Additions and Subtractions form the OBV Line

Volume flow precedes price and is the key to measuring the validity and sustainability of a price trend.

We can see from the OBV chart below that the On Balance Volume line for GSK is sloping up. An up-sloping line indicates that the volume is heavier on up days and buying pressure is exceeding selling pressure. Buying pressure must continue to exceed selling pressure in order to sustain a price uptrend. So, On Balance Volume is a simple indicator to use that confirms the price uptrend and its sustainability.

The numerical value of the On Balance Volume line is not important. We simply want to see an up-sloping line to confirm a price up trend.

Confirmed ‘Buy’ Signal for GSK

Since GSK’s OBV line is sloping up, the most likely future price movement for GSK is up, making GSK a good candidate for a stock purchase or a call option purchase trade.

Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a GSK debit spread.

The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat GSK price to a 12.5% increase.

The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following GSK option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the GSK option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

Trade with Higher Accuracy

When you use the 1% Rule to select a GSK in-the-money option strike price, GSK stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if GSK stock is flat at 45.06 at option expiration, it will only result in a 4.5% loss for the GSK option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.

Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for GSK on 1/13/2022 before commissions.

When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.

For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if GSK stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 47.31 (circled), the call option would make 48.5% before commission.

If GSK stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 49.57 (circled), the call option would make 101.6% before commission and outperform the stock return more than 10 to 1.

The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify winning trades just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

Trade Like a Champion?

Do you want to start receiving hand-picked trades from 10-Time Trading Champion, Chuck Hughes?

As a Trade of the Day subscriber, Chuck is offering you a special discount on his Weekly Option Alert Trading Service.

Just call Brad at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 to join and use the code “Optioneering VIP” to receive special pricing!

Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,

Chuck Hughes

Editor, Trade of the Day

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