Today we have a situation that has only occurred once before. That is, we do not have a new trade idea for only the second time since we created this service. This is due to a toxic combination of extreme disappointment from popular stocks and a rising fear of an economic slowdown. 

Japan just had its biggest 2-day drop since the Fukushima incident. We haven’t seen an implied volatility of S&P 500 Stocks increase like this since the banking sector scare in March of 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank blew up. 

Yesterday’s Jobless Claims spooked the market. Now we have an employment situation report that will be released 1hr before the stock market opens. To say things are uncertain is an understatement. 

The good news is that we feel our open portfolio is well positioned to handle the current situation. If the market makes a big move, we’ve got more than a few neutral straddles that could take advantage of the situation. For example, AMD launched into profitable territory due to a huge drop after earnings were announced. We also have open straddles in BX, CM, CPRT, CVX, DVN, GM, GNTX, GOGO, and STZ that are in profitable territory as of yesterday’s close.

We also have a couple of longer–term hedging trades on QQQ and VIX that could profit if the stock market turns bearish. 

If there is not a big move in the market, we have open positions like DJT, MSFT that could profit in that situation. 

As for entering a new trade today, trending stocks are too expensive to buy and if fears of economic slowdown escalate, we don’t want to enter new put credit spreads if the fear causes the market to cascade to the downside.  

We will sit tight with our open positions today and re-evaluate on Monday. We hope you have a great weekend. 

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Thank you,

Don Fishback