As the last week has progressed, the markets have been getting more and more convinced of a new bullish move. Tuesday’s 2%+ move in the NASDAQ 100 is certainly a positive sign, and it really shows how quickly investors want to get in – 2% is about twice the average daily move we’ve seen in the last 60 trading days, and people are still fine with buying.
So, let’s look at some charts to give us an indication of why this is the case. Since I mentioned the NASDAQ, we can start with QQQ:
Last week I mentioned Semi-conductors looked to lead tech, but now, tech has its own bullish signs. Certainly, the MACD cross is a very good signal that has been working for these markets over the past few months. Crossing the 10- and 20-Day Moving Averages in the past few trading days certainly starts to give an illustration of the positive momentum that we’re seeing.
But, with QQQ near highs, I’d rather wait on a tech trade and focus on something with a bit more upside before it hits resistance. One idea is looking back at the clean energy sector with an ETF like ICLN:
Today, it spiked through the 10-Day Moving Average, and the closest thing I see to clear resistance would be the highs of July. That’s a potential 16% gain here, which is significantly more than what I’m seeing in the short term in technology. Plus, this ETF has the same MACD cross and is coming off some majorly extreme oversold conditions when we see the period that the RSI was trading under 30.
At the end of the day, though, I’d rather get down to an individual name, just like I do for my Outlier Watch List. And today, I’m going to highlight Sunpower, stock symbol SPWR:
Sunpower looks a lot like ICLN but is just toeing the waters above the 10-Day Moving Average. It also has the MACD cross and is coming out of very oversold RSI conditions. And if the upside is to the 100-Day Moving Average that provided clear resistance in July, that’s a potential 43% return. While the options do tend to price in the potential for the higher move, I can see Sunpower extending beyond that to the July highs that were over $12.00, setting up a 65% potential rally. While the ultimate recovery may end up being short-lived, I’m always looking for new ideas that have the potential for massive returns, especially if I can leverage the trade and define my risk with options.
If you’re looking for new ideas, my Outlier Watch List may be an option for you. Please make sure to sign up now for trading ideas that can show you how a professional trader evaluates the markets to find opportunities in any trading environment.
And please, go to http://optionhotline.com to review how I traditionally apply technical signals, volatility analysis, and probability analysis to my options trades. As always, if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.
Keith Harwood
Keith@optionhotline.com
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