Hope you all had a great holiday. Two weeks ago in the weekend update I moved from very cautious to more outright bearish and I initiated 4 short positions that week. Currently I am short MGM, IWM, SMH and MSFT. That is as short as I have been for a very long time — in a couple years at least. The attached chart of the SPY shows the market trading in an area of support.
I think the most likely scenario from here is to break support by enough to scare some people, stop out some longs, and attract some fresh shorts. So looking for lower but using that weakness to take some profits on my shorts. We might rally again, but the beginning of the end is starting. Don’t mean to over dramatize, I just mean that I don’t think the market will have a very good first quarter.
Thanks,
Joe
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