TFI International Inc. (TFII), Trending Stock Report

TFI International Inc. (TFII) appeared on our list of compressed stocks this morning. The trucking and logistics company has a history of making big moves shortly after a compression signal. Option data for the stock in the company’s current corporate structure only became available in March 2021. In that time frame, we had 3 compression signals.

In the first two signals, the stock moved down shortly after the signal, then shot up in the opposite direction. If you purchased straddles on the first two signals, you may have been able to take profits on both the put and the call options in the neutral trading strategy.

This Volatility Term Structure chart for TFII shows us the implied volatility for the at-the-money options for each expiration. This chart shows that options expiring on October 18^th have the lowest volatility expectations. Low volatility expectations mean low options prices. This is the expiration we will target with our option buying strategies.

This MDM graph compares the modeled expected distribution for future stock prices (the orange line) with the actual distribution of TFII’s share prices over the past year (the blue histogram). You can see that the actual stock movement shows that TFII tends to make big moves much more frequently than current options prices expect. This tells us that TFII options expiring on October 18^th are relatively cheap. This is an option buying situation.

This Volatility Cone chart for TFII compares implied volatility expectations for each term to the historical volatility for that same term. The blue line shows the average historical volatility, the purple lines show each HV measure’s highest high and the lowest low over the past 3 years. You can see that the one-month term (which is the term we are interested in) is below the 3-year historical average.

TFII share prices are compressed. The stock has a history of making big moves quickly after a compression signal. Options prices for the October 18^th expiration are relatively cheap. This is an option buying opportunity.

To get the specific details and prices on today’s trade ideas, be sure to read today’s ODDS Online Daily Option Trade Idea.