Sometimes I have something quite specific to pin my trades to…. usually a set up involving my proprietary Scoupe strategy. Sometimes though, just running through the charts of the 100 or so stocks I track, I get an idea whether I like the market to go higher or lower. This is just a combination of experience, and letting my experience work, the latter which I would label at least partly as intuition. Mostly that intuition is right, sometimes it’s a day or two early, and sometimes the market does something different then it would usually do, given the current state of the charts. We are in one of the last two categories presently. DDOG wasn’t good for me Monday. Will try to get out of that Tuesday. PYPL was less bad, but not good. It has a little time to run on the options, but a scratch at around break even would look good to me. The SPY was the least harsh and a drop from here of 2 or 3 SPY points and this is still a pretty decent trade. Will we get that drop?
The most encouraging factor for the bearish case is the last hour of trade on Monday. It reversed a fair bit of the day’s gains as can be seen on the attached chart. Monday was very low volatility, which increased on the downside into the close. A gap lower Tuesday and some further selling, would give the opportunity to close some of my shorts at a profit or at least a smallish loss. One of my preferences is once offside, I try and use any retracement back my way to get out, rather than hope that I can still make money. That philosophy will help you. I call it the “gift horse” strategy. Once offside, then back onside, “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” as grandma used to say.