As per attached SPY chart we were able to take good advantage of the strength over the last month. I also said that the strength would eventually give way to another bout of selling that took us back into the box illustrated. It is well on the way to satisfying that forecast. Generally I expect the decline to be messy and choppy rather than dramatic.

Time can be a great ally in discouraging bulls and encouraging bears when the news backdrop appears to be anything but supportive. Eventually I do think all the news will come home to roost and a more dramatic decline will follow in 2027. But still expecting this chop to culminate in a good fourth quarter low in SPY. Sitting still and being patient. This market isn’t anything like the first half of the year and requires more patience and selectivity. 

Thanks,

Joe

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