The tech sector continues to make new highs and create some very exciting conversations regarding the direction of the market. Is it time to go with the flow or try to call a top?
When I see situations like this, I’ve stated in the past that my preference is to look for opportunities that aren’t fully encompassed in the market move like what we’re seeing in AAPL, AVGO, ADBE, NVDA, and other large movement large cap technology names.
So, when I see a chart like the following in QQQ, I know it’s time to take a step back:
QQQ is sitting at highs with an extreme RSI (very overbought) and a potentially dangerous footing if there comes any piece of negative news as a result. But, trying to predict that negative piece of news is a fool’s game with low probability of a positive outcome.
Instead, I’ll look back at a sector that should be getting money flow, but perhaps isn’t because of the laser-focus of many on tech, and that’s energies. Let’s look at an updated chart of USO:
With USO breaking through key moving averages, I’m on the lookout for oil companies or oil-related companies to make a move. Since I discussed one such possibility in the oil sector last week, I’ll look now to a somewhat derivative company of energies, and that’s Tesla – TSLA:
TSLA got a boost from approving Musk’s $56 billion pay package and is back in the news somewhat with Fisker filing for bankruptcy. But even more importantly for me, it’s now above the 100-Day Moving Average and is using a cluster of key moving averages as support. This could become the start of a bull trend for TSLA, and options are not particularly expensive despite this.
If you want to know more about options and how these technical signals can be leveraged in various underlying stocks, make sure you check out my Outlier Watch List, where I give a long list of stocks I’m considering for bullish and bearish entries via options.
And as always, please go to http://optionhotline.com to review how I traditionally apply technical signals, volatility analysis, and probability analysis to my options trades. And if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.
Keith Harwood
Keith@optionhotline.com
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