After gapping from about $120 to $86.67, UPS (UPS) now sits at 2020 lows.

All thanks to recent earnings and pulled guidance. 

In its most recent quarter, UPS’ EPS of $1.55 missed by two cents. Revenue of $21.2 billion, down 2.8% year over year, did beat by $350 million. Not helping, UPS did not provide revenue or operating profit guidance due to the current macroeconomic uncertainty.

However, UPS CEO Carol Tome just bought 11,682 UPS shares or $1 million. The last time Tome bought UPS, she picked up 10,100 shares for $1 million in May 2020. Board Chair William Johnson bought 5,000 UPS shares of $432,477. The last time he bought shares was in July 2024, when he paid $643,035 for 5,000 shares.

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With the stock down substantially on earnings and pulled guidance, it’s fair to say a good deal of negativity has been priced in. Now, with insiders putting their money where their mouths are, it may be a good time to start buying again.

From its last traded price of $86.67, we’d like to see it initially retest $98 shortly. Longer-term, we’d like to see UPS refill its bearish gap at around $102.50 and head back to $107.

Sincerely,

Ian Cooper