The market is showing signs of a pullback in preparation for the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow and continued lack of progress in the Middle East.

I want to focus this week on the oil markets. This time feels different. This time, there’s no headlines talking about how we’re going to make progress and negotiate. And that may change, but right now, there’s nothing out there to support the oil bear. At least for now.

We are broadly testing support levels in the broad market, but the highest conviction bullish positions I am finding are tending to be in the oil sector. I’m seeing lots of indications that the market agrees with my view and that energy companies have continued upside. I’m not getting that from headlines or social media; I’m getting that from market dynamics as digested by a powerful AI-tool that evaluates everything going on in the market: The Stock Forecast Toolbox. Try it out for free!

As I looked for ideas, one energy company stood out to me, ConocoPhillips (COP):

It’s a great chart, and while I’m worried that headlines could derail this rally, the leverage and defined risk of options can give me a significant edge here. But only if my bullish bias is also confirmed by due diligence. That’s where I turn to the Toolbox:


Upside projections are to over $140/share in the next 2 weeks. While it could go even higher, I know that I’d want to take the money and run if prices get to that level, so I’ll be looking at the September 18th $130/$140 call spread tomorrow. It’s currently valued at about $3.15 and has a maximum value of $10. I won’t let it run that high, but if it can get to $7+ and has a high probability of success, that’s a great setup with a 100%+ return potential. That’s the kind of setup I love to find, and it’s the Toolbox that helps me increase my confidence.

As a reminder, the Forecast Toolbox doesn’t just give me one prediction every week or every day. It models out high probability moves for most listed stocks in the market. I can check every stock in my portfolio to make sure I’m positioned right when I’m holding my investments, and when I’m looking for a new trade, it provides a filtered list of some of the most explosive setups so I can find the next great idea for my trading portfolio.

So, make sure to take advantage of the free 7-Day Trial of the Stock Forecast Toolbox so you can see what it can do for you!

If you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.

Keith Harwood
Keith@OptionHotline.com