How To Exploit The S&P and Nasdaq As They Soar

This past week investors saw the market extend its rally with both the S&P 500 & Nasdaq indices making numerous new all-time highs. Most of the week’s gains were concentrated in the largest mega-cap stocks, particularly Nvidia Corp. Despite the overwhelming strength coming from the largest stocks in the market, it was not a bad week for the broader market by any means. 9 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in the green and still 67% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-Day moving average which indicates a healthy bull market as 2/3 of stocks are still in a long-term uptrend. Additionally, at current levels our technical indicators do not signal that the broader market is overbought despite the multiple new highs. With the strength of Q1 earnings and the market fresh off of new highs and not currently signaling that it is overbought this portrays a positive outlook for the market in the short term.

Following last week’s new highs in the market, we have a dense schedule of potentially market moving events expected this week. This week we will get two fresh inflation prints for the month of May in CPI & PPI. Coupled with these two reports, the Fed’s June FOMC meeting will wrap up on Wednesday where they will deliver their latest policy rate decision as well as feature Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference. In addition to this, the FOMC will also be releasing their quarterly update to their rate forecast ‘Dot Plot’. These events are sure to draw great interest from investors to see what can be gleaned about upcoming rate decisions. Also, while Q1 earnings season is largely over, there are still a few significant companies yet to report including three this week that we will be following such as Broadcom Inc. & Oracle Corp.

CPI – On Wednesday, the BLS will deliver the new CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for the month of May. CPI is a gauge of price inflation at the consumer level. CPI measures the price inflation that consumers are faced with when purchasing goods or services.
- In the previous month’s report, YoY CPI came in in line with market expectations, at 3.4%. The May YoY number is forecast to also come in at 3.4%.

PPI – Following Wednesday’s CPI report, on Thursday, we will get the new PPI (Producer Price Index) data from the BLS. PPI is a gauge of wholesaler price inflation. This can be a good indicator of inflation to come as it is measuring the output cost at which producers have sold their goods.
- In the previous month’s report, YoY PPI came in at 2.2%, in line with expectations but a notable increase from the month prior. May’s PPI is forecast to come in at 2.2% marking that there was no acceleration from April to May.

Fed ‘Dot Plot’ – Following this week’s FOMC meeting, the committee will release their updated Fed Funds rate forecast ‘Dot Plot’. The Dot Plot is a quarterly report released by the FOMC that is an anonymous survey of the FOMC members that allows each individual to forecast their expectation of where the Fed Funds rate will be at various points in the future. This report is a helpful tool in reading current sentiment of the FOMC and gauging member’s feeling on the trajectory of monetary policy.
- In the March Dot Plot release, it reflected that the majority of members felt that there would be three rate cuts by the end of this year. Given recent developments with incoming data, the updated Dot Plot is likely to reflect a change in FOMC member’s forecasts to indicate fewer expected cuts this year.

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Federal Reserve Watch

This week we will get the latest Fed rate decision as the June FOMC meeting will wrap up on Wednesday afternoon. The markets are all but guaranteeing that the Fed will opt to leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. Despite little intrigue in the FOMC’s policy decision, markets will certainly be tuned in when the updated ‘Dot Plot’ forecast is released as well as Fed Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Both the Dot Plot & press conference will allow investors the opportunity to gather any new information regarding Fed sentiment and their guidance regarding future policy decisions. Chair Powell and the FOMC have made it clear that they will continue to hold rates at present levels until they have seen sufficient evidence that inflation is returning to their target range of 2%. Various members have stated that they need to see “several consecutive months” worth of positive inflation data before they will feel comfortable lowering the Fed Funds Rate. Expect Powell’s messaging in the press conference to reflect this as the committee’s criteria for beginning a rate cutting cycle.

With it being almost a foregone conclusion that the FOMC is going to hold rates steady this week at Wednesday’s meeting we want to take a look at the upcoming month’s meetings to get a feel of market expectations. The next FOMC meeting is set for July 31^st, however, there is little expectation that the Fed will opt to reduce rates at this meeting. Looking beyond July, after recent economic data beginning to show that some mild economic weakness could be forming Fed Funds Futures are showing that investors are assigning roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed will either cut or hold rates steady at the September meeting. Looking on to the final two meetings scheduled for this year, Futures show that investors feel that we will end the year with the Fed’s policy rate in the range of 5.00%-5.25% which would be 25 basis points lower than status quo. This indicates that at present, the market is anticipating only one rate cut this year. At market close on Friday, Fed Futures odds for the November & December meetings show that markets are pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut at 65.1% & 85.5% respectively.

This Week’s Notable Earnings

Now that we have largely put a bow on Q1 earnings season with 99% of S&P 500 companies having reported already, there are still a few companies yet to report. This week we will hear from three notable technology companies as we look to wrap up Q1 earnings. The three companies set to report this week that our team will be paying attention to are Oracle Corp., Broadcom Inc., & Adobe Systems, Inc. Each of these companies’ current narratives are highly intertwined with the larger A.I. market narrative and their earnings results will surely have an impact on market sentiment surrounding the A.I. theme and how companies other than Nvidia are monetizing A.I. technology.

On Tuesday following the market close, Oracle Corp. will post their Q1 earnings results. Expectations are that ORCL will report results that will be marginally lower compared to their Q1 ’23 results. ORCL has had a quite volatile past year of trading with no real trend emerging. Possibly delivering a strong report could be the catalyst that this stock needs.
- ORCL earnings are expected to come in at $1.65 EPS.

Once the market closes on Wednesday, semiconductor giant Broadcom Inc. is set to report their Q1 earnings numbers. AVGO is forecast to grow Q1 EPS by a rate of 4.6% YoY. AVGO is expected to be a major beneficiary of the A.I. ‘build-out’ so investors will be closely following this report for the results and the company’s guidance.
- AVGO earnings are expected to come in at $10.80 EPS.

After the closing bell on Thursday, Adobe Inc. is scheduled to report their latest quarterly earnings. Despite beating earnings expectations in their last report, ADBE shares were hit with a major sell-off as the stock was unable to deliver satisfactory plans about how the company was planning to leverage A.I. Expect the company to acutely focus on this topic while addressing the latest quarter and their guidance. ADBE is forecast to post YoY Q1 EPS growth of 12.3%.
- ADBE earnings are expected to come in at $4.39 EPS.

Thank you for reading this week’s edition of the Weekly Market Periscope Newsletter, I hope you enjoyed it. Please lookout out for the next edition of the newsletter as we will give you a preview of the upcoming week’s important market events.

Thanks,