PureCycle Technologies, Inc. (PCT) is trending in social media. Mentions are up 1,500% in the last 24 hours after an analyst began coverage with an overweight rating and the company scheduled an earnings report conference call for November 7th.
The stock jumped 29% yesterday. That came along with a spike in implied volatility. The spike in implied volatility shows a rising demand for PCT options. The higher volatility expectations may provide a zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) trade if we can get filled at the right price.
This Volatility Term Structure chart shows us the implied volatility of the at-the-money options at each option expiration. This term structure is inverted. Short-term options have higher volatility expectations than long-term options. The highest volatility expectation is shown for those options expiring today. High implied volatility means high option prices. This tells us to focus on selling strategies for today’s expiration.
This MDM graph compares the modeled expectations of current options prices (the orange line) to the actual movement of PCT’s stock price over the past two years. You can see that the actual behavior (the blue histogram) doesn’t look like the modeled expectations at all. This graph tells us that investors are expecting huge moves. The problem is that the stock price just hasn’t made the kind of moves investors are expecting. That doesn’t mean the stock can’t make those moves, it just means if the stock continues to behave the way it has in the past, the expected moves are highly unlikely.
PCT’s stock price jumped higher yesterday on a new analyst’s initial rating. Volatility expectations are extreme relative to past stock performance. With an increasing demand for options, we may be able to get filled at a great price on a 0DTE credit spread trade this morning.
Be sure to read the ODDS Online Daily Trade Idea report to get the details of our trade idea for today.
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Thank you,
Don Fishback
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