Dear Reader,

Yesterday, we looked at a Daily Price Chart of the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, noting that the ETF has been making a series of 52-Week Highs recently.

For today’s Trade of the Day e-letter we will be looking at a Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) chart for Toll Brothers, Inc. stock symbol: TOL.

Before breaking down TOL’s MACD chart let’s first review what products and services the company offers.

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers.

MACD Indicator confirms Price Momentum

The TOL daily price chart below shows that TOL is in a price uptrend as the 24/52 day MACD line (black line) is above the 18-Day EMA (purple line). The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence chart is shown below the daily price chart.

MACD uses moving averages to create a momentum indicator by subtracting the longer-term moving average from the shorter-term moving average. The MACD is calculated by subtracting a stock’s longer term 52-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from its shorter term 24-Day EMA. This creates the MACD line.

MACD ‘Buy’ Signal

The 18-Day EMA line functions as a buy/sell ‘trigger’. When the 24/52 Day MACD line crosses above the 18-Day EMA line it indicates positive momentum and higher prices for the stock. When the 24/52 Day MACD lines crosses below the 18-Day EMA it indicates negative momentum and lower prices for the stock. MACD is more of a leading indicator than a moving average cross over which tends to lag price movement.

MACD Histogram shows Acceleration of Momentum

Also included in a MACD chart is the histogram bar graph. This portion of the chart helps to illustrate the distance between the 24/52 Day MACD and the 18-Day EMA.

When a crossover initially occurs, the histogram’s bar will be near flat as the two indicator lines have converged. As the lines begin to separate, the bars grow in height, indicating a widening gap and acceleration for the stock’s momentum. When the histogram’s bars begin to shrink this indicates a narrowing of the gap between the 24/52 Day MACD and the 18-Day EMA and a slowing of the stock’s momentum. When the gap between the two indicators begins to narrow, this typically indicates a crossover of the indicator lines could happen soon.

Buy TOL Stock

As long as the 24/52 Day MACD line remains above the 18-Day EMA, the stock is more likely to keep trading at new highs in the coming days and weeks.

Since TOL’s bullish run is likely to continue, the stock should be purchased.

Our initial price target for TOL stock is 70.00 per share.

100.6% Profit Potential for TOL Option

Now, since TOL’s 24/52 Day MACD is trading above the 18-Day EMA this means the stock’s bullish rally will likely continue. Let’s use the Hughes Optioneering calculator to look at the potential returns for a TOL call option purchase.

The Call Option Calculator will calculate the profit/loss potential for a call option trade based on the price change of the underlying stock/ETF at option expiration in this example from a flat TOL price to a 12.5% increase.

The Optioneering Team uses the 1% Rule to select an option strike price with a higher percentage of winning trades. In the following TOL option example, we used the 1% Rule to select the TOL option strike price but out of fairness to our paid option service subscribers we don’t list the strike price used in the profit/loss calculation.

Trade with Higher Accuracy

When you use the 1% Rule to select a TOL in-the-money option strike price, TOL stock only has to increase 1% for the option to breakeven and start profiting! Remember, if you purchase an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option and the underlying stock closes flat at option expiration it will result in a 100% loss for your option trade! In this example, if TOL stock is flat at 67.49 at option expiration, it will only result in a 10.0% loss for the TOL option compared to a 100% loss for an at-the-money or out-of-the-money call option.

Using the 1% Rule to select an option strike price can result in a higher percentage of winning trades compared to at-the-money or out-of-the-money call options. This higher accuracy can give you the discipline needed to become a successful option trader and can help avoid 100% losses when trading options.

The goal of this example is to demonstrate the powerful profit potential available from trading options compared to stocks.

The prices and returns represented below were calculated based on the current stock and option pricing for TOL on 5/18/2023 before commissions.

When you purchase a call option, there is no limit on the profit potential of the call if the underlying stock continues to move up in price.

For this specific call option, the calculator analysis below reveals if TOL stock increases 5.0% at option expiration to 70.86 (circled), the call option would make 45.3% before commission. 

If TOL stock increases 10.0% at option expiration to 74.24 (circled), the call option would make 100.6% before commission and outperform the stock return 10 to 1*. 

The leverage provided by call options allows you to maximize potential returns on bullish stocks.

The Hughes Optioneering Team is here to help you identify profit opportunities just like this one.

Interested in accessing the Optioneering Calculators? Join one of Chuck’s Trading Services for unlimited access! The Optioneering Team has option calculators for six different option strategies that allow you to calculate the profit potential for an option trade before you take the trade.

Average Portfolio Return of 182.0%

Below is a screenshot of the current open trade profit opportunities from Chuck’s Inner Circle Trading Service. There are currently $170,864.52 in open trade profit opportunities with an average portfolio return of 182.0% demonstrating the ability of the Optioneering Strategy to deliver substantial returns with no losing portfolios**.

**Open trade profit results represent the open trade profit performance for the portfolio displayed on 5/18/23. Open trade profits may have increased or decreased when trades were closed out. Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Member profits and losses are not tracked. Profit potential is taken from results of signaled trades, not actual member results. Not all members make the trades.

Chuck’s $3,000 Trading Scholarship

I don’t want you to miss a single opportunity to potentially reach your goals. That’s why I’d like to offer you a scholarship of the full $3,000 Enrollment Fee of my exclusive Inner Circle Trading Service**.

I want you to follow in my footsteps for the opportunity to succeed beyond your wildest dreams, so please call Brad in my office at 1-866-661-5664 or 1-310-647-5664 and get started today!

You can also CLICK HERE to schedule a call now!

Wishing You the Best in Investing Success,

Chuck Hughes

Editor, Trade of the Day

Have any questions? Email us at

*Trading incurs risk and some people lose money trading.

**Inner Circle Trading Service program provides training package and specific trade signals for one year. The first 10 people to sign up each day this offer is valid, will get a waiver of the standard fee, which is the price charged to anyone signing up after the first 10 people per day.