One of the bigger picture portfolio opportunities may be available in the long term bond ETF symbol TLT. The yield is currently about 5%. Options are liquid. I like buying TLT on dips and selling call options against it on rallies. No matter what the new Fed chair says now, the telegraph was sent long ago that he is there to lower interest rates, which would see TLT prices rise. Already we see the new Fed wants to change how they measure inflation (again) and like every other time before this, the change will result in a lower stated inflation number.

Lower the inflation into the target zone, then voila, okay to cut interest rates. Additionally the world economy at this point can very unlikely stave off recession, and if the status quo remains we may be looking at worse. So the Fed will then be justified to provide cheaper money. The only potential flaw in this whole scenario is if the rest of the world starts to divest of US Treasuries. That is happening somewhat now, but something like this is like turning an ocean liner, so probabilities are to see continued two way moves in TLT. Buy the dips, sell slightly out of the money calls on rallies. 

Nvdia earning Wednesday. Don’t know how much is already baked into the pie. Insane valuations, but could still move higher with the right guidance. Slowly but surely weakness is showing up in other sectors, I am short UBER from Monday at 75.07. TLT weekly attached.

Thanks,

Joe

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