Is this more noise or is this the end of the chaos?

We have a 14-day ceasefire.  That sounds like things are going the right direction for negotiations toward a plan for peace in the Middle East.  But what if the negotiations don’t go as planned?  Then what?

We continue to have a fundamental macroeconomic picture with more questions than answers, and the market is “noisy” as a result:

As I write this, the S&P 500 is trading at levels in line with the December 2025 lows.  It’s a natural landing spot for the market to find resistance.  What was support and broke becomes resistance on the recovery.  And those that are writing the history of the stock market for March of 2026 will likely point to the lows of March 31st as the clear signal that it would be the market lows.  But last week it wasn’t clear.  It’s only clearer with Tuesday afternoon’s announcement that there would be a temporary ceasefire.  And since that ceasefire has a deadline, it’s still not completely certain that March 31st, 2026, was the low.

So, what do I do now?  The uncertainty remains (to a lesser extent), and the market technicals look a lot more bullish.  Should I buy the rally?  Should I sell the rally?  Should I do nothing?

For today, I am studying the market’s response and individual stock behavior while evaluating the trading opportunities.  Tuesday was known to expect an input that could cause volatility, and I have been a strong advocate of not forcing trades that have no real edge until the fundamentals and market reaction are clearer.  Well, now the inputs are clearer, even though the inputs may not be fully clear quite yet.

So, for me, it’s time to get deep into the AI signals.  The signals generated from Tuesday’s market action won’t likely be actionable by Wednesday morning, since most stock prices will move significantly.  But I’m not too worried about that, because when we saw a similar negotiation blueprint a year ago with the Tariff War with China, the market didn’t run higher immediately.  Instead, there were about 2 weeks of digestion after the initial spike higher.  During those two weeks, there were plenty of bullish (and bearish) stocks, and there will be plenty of opportunities identified by the Stock Forecast Toolbox during the next two weeks as market behavior returns to normal.  It seems the market has a floor until the ceasefire deadline comes, so I’ve got an opportunity to look at a lot of trading opportunities and capitalize on those signals while we wait for the deadline.

For Wednesday, I’ll look at broad portfolio concepts, options analytics, and technical levels.  On Thursday, I’ll be ready to move on new actionable ideas from the Toolbox.  Given what we’ve seen in the historical accuracy of the picks, now is the perfect time to try it out, and so I want to make sure everyone that hasn’t done so yet grabs the free 7-Day Trial of the Stock Forecast Toolbox.  Past performance is never a guarantee for the future, but if history does repeat, now is the time for the Toolbox to shine.

If you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.

Keith Harwood

Keith@OptionHotline.com