Is it over yet?  Or are we just getting started?

With the pullback, I’m looking for a bullish signal.  Counter-trend tends to give the best leverage if you can time it right, so I’m looking to see if there’s something counter-trend that can tell me to time it now!

Part of what I do in my Outlier Watch List is to find those setups with leveraged return profiles.  To get leverage, one has to find something that the market doesn’t see.  Generally, this is an explosive move overall or a move counter to what the market is pricing in.  And right now, I’m getting an early signal that this selling pressure may be done with.

If you want to review the overall market situation, I think the first thing we should do is look at SPY, which is one of the most liquid ETFs that tracks the S&P 500:

As you can see, there’s really nothing here to indicate that the bear market is over.  Frankly, the rejection of the 10-Day Moving Average on a bounce is a bearish signal that really gives me pause on buying into this market.

When you know these key setups, spotting the lucrative Outlier trades gets crazy easy. Click here for your Outlier Roadmap.

So, let’s move on and see if there’s another sector that gives me a bullish bias, and does so with conviction.  Let’s check QQQ, which is my main tech ETF for monitoring markets in that sector:

Once again, I struggle here.  QQQ is showing signs of wanting to recover momentum, but it really hasn’t gotten the momentum to go with it.

So, let’s go all the way down to a leading indicator for QQQ, which is semiconductors.  I track this with SMH as an ETF:

SMH spiked through the 10-Day Moving Average, is testing waters near the 20- and 50-Day Moving Averages and sincerely looks bullish still relative to tech.  So, I want to dive into those tech names in my Outlier Watch List and see what’s out there!  After all, semiconductors have been the bullish leader in tech, so why wouldn’t that continue?

If you’re looking for new ideas, my outlier watch list can provide them for you.  Please make sure to sign up now for trading ideas that can show you how a professional trader evaluates the markets to find opportunities in any trading environment.

And please, go to to review how I traditionally apply technical signals, volatility analysis, and probability analysis to my options trades.  As always, if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.

Keith Harwood